About three weeks ago I started an experiment: I imagined investing 100b isk in items which I predicted would increase in price over the next four months. My goal was to see if I could make a profit with very conservative assumptions, buying from sell orders and (attempting to) sell largely to buy orders (or, at least, taking the average of the buy/sell order prices during the period I would sell the stock). This is my first update on the progress of this little experiment. As it turns out, I did actually make some of the investments, and I explain how those have panned out along with what I would have done with the rest of the stock thus far.
tl;dr - so far I'm up to 5.69b profit with no "mulligans" (i.e., I calculated my profits according to when I actually would have sold / started selling the items, instead of simply calculating the profits by the highest buy or sell order price since July 12th). Considering how little time I've spent on this project (e.g., I didn't even start checking most of these prices again until Crius, and then only occasionally) I'd say this is a success thus far.
Category 1: Moon harvesting arrays.
Estimated profit: 400m
Between July 20-27th MHAs
spiked in Jita from 20m to a high of around 34m. Whether from market
manipulation or an actual increase of use, I began selling them off
as soon as the prices hit 25m. I did (actually) sell a few MHAs I had
(actually) bought at 30m isk, but I will assume here that I would
have managed to sell all 100 of my stock for an average of 24m. That
makes for a modest profit of 400m and I didn't even have to ship them
out to sell at local trade hubs like I thought I might have to do.
Category 2: Logistics.
Estimated profit (guardian, oneiros,
scimitar): 1.3b
Some of the logistics ships were coming
down from a spike when I invested in them. Since the beginning of
July, besides the basilisk, logistics ships have slowly been
increasing in price, and on August 3rd I decided to cash
out. Guardians were up to 170m in sell orders with a few buy orders
for around 164m, so I estimated that I could liquidate my stock of 20
for an average of 165m. I bought 10 scimitars for 146m and now they
were up to 169m in sell orders, 161m in buy orders. I estimate I
could liquidate the 10 through sell orders at an average of 168m. The
oneiros has especially jumped in price, from 150m when I bought 10 to
between 200m and 220m in sell orders at the beginning of August. Buy
orders on the 3rd were at around 181m, so I estimate I
could liquidate my small stock for an average of 190m.
Category 3: Recon Ships.
Estimated profit (falcon, rook): 1.17b
All recon prices spiked after Crius. I
could have sold at least some of my stock in sell orders during this
price and made 10-20% profit. However, I felt this was jumping the
gun on most of the recon ships given that the rebalanaces have not
even been announced yet, and given that my goal is to make profit by
selling to buy orders, ideally, even if when I do these investments
for real I will likely sell most of my items through sell orders
(obviously?). So, I only cashed out on two recons:
I invested in 30 falcons at 168m. Buy
orders jumped to 185m by the end of July and sell orders were around
195m, so I estimate modestly that I could liquidate the stock at an
average of 188m each. Sell orders and, briefly, buy orders, for rooks
spiked as well, though far less rooks move each day. I picked up 30
for 126m, with sell orders around 160m by the end of July and
beginning of August. I would have slowly cashed out over this period
likely starting when sell orders hit 135m so I estimate that I could
have sold them for an average of 145m. For the rest of the recons, I
want to wait for the rebalance announcements at this point, which I
expect is the next time they will spike in price. Hopefully I haven't
been too conservative here!
Category 4: Limited edition items.
Estimated profit (leopard): 1.27b
First of all, shortly after I did my
July 12th “investments” some people started
manipulating the price of leopards. At one point roughly around the
time Crius hit, nearly all of the stock of leopards were bought up in
Jita. Sell orders peaked at 99m and have slowly been going down,
hitting the low 70m spot currently. I picked up 75 leopards for
(again, always rounding up) 63m before this spike. Fortunately for
me, leopards were one of the items I actually did (for real) invest
in at this point, though not as many as 75 (closer to 40). I sold my
stock at an average of 85m, and estimate I could have sold 35 more at
80m, so I am going to make a safe bet and say I could have liquidated
my 75 leopards at an average of 80m, so a profit of 1.27b. Geckos, on
the other hand, have dropped a bit. I am a bit worried about this
investment. I am predicting geckos will spike right before—or
during—the alliance tournament. Both genolution implants have
continued to slowly increase in price. I could begin selling them off
for a profit, but I am going to wait out the trend longer as unless
players directly manipulate the price by selling off large stocks,
these implants should continue to rise in price over the next few
months.
Category 4: PLEX
I picked up 32 PLEX for 795m a piece.
Prices spiked to 820m or so and have since dropped to 785m as of
August 3rd. So thus far, unless I would be willing to ship
these PLEX to other regional markets and sell them for higher prices
there (something I know some other, crazier traders do!) I don't have
any option besides sitting on the stock. Realistically, if I did make
this investment, I would be PLEXing my accounts in advance and so I
wouldn't count this investment as a “loss” but as needed assets.
Category 5: Nestors
What I knew was a terrible decision,
fueled only by irrational expectations that the nestor would soon be
improved, the nester has dropped by 100m since I picked up 3. This is
the purchase I was least likely to make in the beginning, and most
included them out of curiosity at how their market would develop.I guess my pretend nestor investment is a placeholder for bad decisions I will inevitably make in the future when investing.
Category 6: Bombers
I made a small investment in bombers.
Since July 12th their price has increased by a small
6-10%. I am holding out for slightly higher prices.
Category 7: Strategic Cruisers
Estimated profit (all): 1.54b
Finally, strategic cruisers. It turns
out this was another set of items I actually did purchase around July
12 (though not in the same numbers as on my experiment's chart), and
I've since sold my stock for a decent profit. 15 legions at 127m
easily sold at 164m. 15 tengus at 134m sold for an average of 155m
(underestimating a bit I think). 15 proteuses at 134m were selling
for as high as 180m, but overall I estimate I could have sold 15 total for an
average of 165m very quickly. 15 loki at 127m sold at least at 142m a piece.
Total, I made a fairly quick 1.54b on strategic cruisers.
Current totals: So far in my experiment
I am less than a month in and I've turned a fairly quick 5.69b
profit. I didn't even start checking the prices on most of these
items until after Crius, and, as explained, I would have sold most of
the stock thus far to buy orders, reducing my investment of time. Of
some the items I did actually invest in—a few MHAs, a few leopards,
and some strategic cruisers—I've made a decent profit. Crius has
had a much bigger impact on the prices of tech 2 and 3 goods than I
expected, which is actually a positive sign for my experiment since
most of my investments were long term. Most of the investments were
made from predictions about how the market will react to future
rebalanaces—recon ships in particular—as well as long term trends
of limited stock items. Since my goal is to have all stock sold by
December, I still have over three months left in my experiment to
turn a profit on the remaining items. As is probably painfully obvious to experienced traders etc., in this experiment and in my regular trading, I am learning that the more isk you have, the easier it is to make more and with it with less of a time commitment.
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