Tuesday, June 17, 2014

PVP Dry Spells

For the past few weeks—maybe even over a month—I've been in a dry spell in solo PVP. The sort of dry spell that makes me roam hoping to explode, so long as it involves a solo fight or something close. I've had a hard time finding fights, win or lose. I only have anecdotal evidence, but it just feels harder to find solo fights of any sort currently than, say, 6 months ago. The expansion being released makes it even harder, as it feels like no matter how excited I am for the expansions, my main activities when they are released always seem to be logistics--hauling, market orders, etc. As nice as the new low sec exploration / PVE content is for the health of low security space, they also involve a huge amount of travel. My single Mordu BPC only came after a few hundred belts--fortunately I was able to do a bit of PVP at the same time, and the pay out at the time was equivalent to a PLEX.
This PVP dry spell has led me to reflect back on my losses on the first half of the year—48 now. I wish it were higher, as it would mean I've found more fights in general. I divided my losses into the following groups, which I think pretty well reflects what it is like to be a non-elite solo PVPer in EVE:

“Blobbed” here means killed by a sufficiently large number of pilots and in such a way that it is highly unlikely I get even a single kill during the process. “Out numbered” generally means fighting 2-3 ships, and “outgunned” means the ship is a class or type higher—e.g., fighting a pirate frigate in a T1 frigate (generally, the cases where I die to a blob or small gang are also cases where I am partly out gunned as well).
Out of 48 losses total thus far in 2014, the following are ship losses while attempting to solo in low or null sec (so pods and fleet losses are not included):

Blobbed: 12

Out numbered: 6

Solo loss: 9

Of those 9 solo losses, 4 were against ships that outgunned me (typically, fighting navy frigates in T1 frigates). 2 were “just die already” fit coraxes I was desperate to explode due to really disliking coraxes. Of the remaining 4, one was a great fight between a 400mm plate rail comet (me) and a SAR rail comet in which I died in a fire. Another loss came in a destroyer against an assault frigate that was also one-sided. The second most recent was a fantastic slug-fest in a 400mm plate coercer against a 400mm plate algos where I learned how much better the algos is at that sort of brawling. Finally and most recently, while trying to solo in a punisher, I died to a hard counter a few times over—a neuting, TDing slasher who could also leave the fight at any time.

The frustration caused by dry spells is actually one of the things that gets me to try harder and try new things in EVE. So, I am going to be doing two new things in the coming months:

First, I am going to be doing a short stint in FW, specifically in the Amarr FW. My reason for this is primarily to PVP in a new area of space and see some new faces (I've almost never ventured into Amarr/Minmatar FW space). This is part of my goal to earn a kill in every low sec constellation as well as visit every system in EVE. I won't be joining an "elite" group, but trying to look like an easy target in hopes of getting fights. Finally, with the Minmatar currently hoovering around T3-T4, there will, hopefully, be a few targets around.

Second, once I lose enough ships in FW, if there is a "summer war" heating up I may join Brave Newbies with some newer friends. Since I am a virtual newbie when it comes to null sec as well as coalition "PVP" I figure it will provide a decent opportunity to find some action and meet new players.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Besieged Covert Research Facilities - now spawning in a system near you

Besieged Covert Research Facilities are now spawning all over low security space. It appears that around one spawns per five or so systems, but they can be more spread out or more clustered as the case may be. The rats come in two waves: Three ships of some combination of Mordu battleships and cruisers, and then some combination of five ships (four battleships and one cruiser seems typical). They do significant kinetic damage with no trouble applying the DPS at ranges past 100km and to targets with low signature radius, and they appear to be weakest to kinetic—this makes typical PVE ships like the tengu and the ishtar perfect for soloing these ships given their high default resists to kinetic. I am playing with fits at the moment, but so far an active tanking heavy missile tengu seems to work well, putting out upwards of 700dps with scourge fury heavy missiles at 70km—well away from the point range of the Mordu ships. The sites can thus be farmed in only a few minutes given the small number of rats. Even with resists in the high 80s or into the 90s, these second wave in particular requires a decent tank.

It is too early to tell what the average isk payout of these sites will be. Covert research tools, one of the new low-grade pirate implants, and a new ship skin BPC, seem like a fairly consistent group of drops from each site. However, the market will take a few days to weeks to settle on prices for these items.

Here are the drops from five sites thus far:

1. Thrasher Thukker Tribe BPC, low-grade harvest alpha, and around 5m in covert research tools.

2. Cormorant Guristas BPC, low-grade edge delta, and around 5m in covert research tools

3.Thrasher Thukker Tribe BPC, and around 5m in covert research tools

4. Coercer Blood Raider BPC, and around 5m in covert research tools

5. Ferox Guristas BPC, low-grade snake epsilon, and around 5m in covert research tools.

Once the price on the ship skins settles I look forward to PVPing in them. The low-grade pirate implants will also make a cheaper alternative to the mid / high grades, as I assume the price of a full set of LG snakes, slaves, etc., will balance out to a few hundred million isk.

These sites add a new set of content to low sec exploration and another reason to live and travel there, without really overshadowing any of the other exploration content.

Friday, June 6, 2014

Are there any games like EVE online?

Sometimes my friends ask me why I don't play X,Y,Z, and why I solely play EVE. I get incredulous stares when I say "It's the only game worth playing so far as I'm concerned."

Say I want to play a game that has the following features. First, there has to be PVP, but not in rigidly defined ways or prescribed areas—it has to be an integral part of the game, part of the next two features. Second, the game has to be a sandbox in some minimal senses—and not merely having a crafting system, say, which some game developers seem to think is the condition for being a sandbox. I take “sandbox” to mean that players can build and destroy vital, core parts of the game world. Third, it has to involve risk. Rewards in games mean nothing to me if there is not also risk. On my view, features 1-3 combine to transform a game into a virtual world.

It is also a plus if the game has a lot of content and minimal bugs—further conditions which exclude many newer games due to the increasing trend of releasing games in beta or alpha or in pre-release-releases where players pay to bug test and read dev blogs about someday content. People seem to love newer games, but for me, a game needs to be released—and continually updated—for a few years until I consider it worth playing. (E.g., I tend to buy Total War games only 2 or so years after they were released, both because that's about how long it takes CA to fix many of the broken features and that's how long it takes the modding community to get really established.)

There are really only a few games which satisfy these features—partly because these features identity virtual worlds more than mere games. Cross out virtually every MMORPG, even those billed as sandboxes. Some mostly single-player games involve world-building, but not in the sense where PVP is integral to the sandbox and the risk elements. So far as I can tell, besides EVE online, your options are slim. Dayz (and its clones) is one similar such game. Player interaction in the game is highly unpredictable, usually outright strange. While the game is certainly not a themepark, it is also a bit too much like a drawn out FPS with weird social interactions for me. Someday, if and when permanent modification of the game world is implemented (e.g., building and fortifying), and if server size ever sufficiently increases, I may find it worth some time.

But so far as I can tell, EVE Online is almost completely unique in satisfying my conditions 1-3 (as well as having years of content and few really major bugs). And it likely will be the only game / virtual world satisfying those conditions for at least 5 years. At least 5 years because, first, few games are in development which aim to satisfying conditions 1-3. Of those that are, many of them are from very small studios, and many likely will only have a small following upon release. Could a game be released with features 1-3 that surpasses EVE? Sure, but to match the amount of content—player created content in addition to dev created—the game would need at least a few years of a dedicated community building, destroying, exploring, fighting, etc. Devs create the means and tools for a sandbox game, but the players ultimately make a game a sandbox. So, I guess for me--now and in the next few years--my gaming choices boil down to either EVE, or nothing really.

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

The Monthly Top – May 2014

Zkillboard has a nice little feature which lets you view the monthly (as well as all-time) “top” for any given pilot, the most useful stats being the most used ships and the most frequent systems for that character's PVP “wins.” I figured it would be worthwhile—for my own reflections, at least—to make a series covering my monthly top 10—the ships, at least, but sometimes the systems as well. I wish the killboard had a monthly top losses as well, but generally my top killing ships were also ships I lost the most of. I will start with May, 2014:

For the month of May, I was in Stay Frosty, and virtually all of my fights were solo (attempts at solo, at least). May and June tend to be some of the busiest months of the year for me “IRL,” so I am happy with how much activity I ended up with.

1. Coercer. 17 kills.
Tied for the top ship of the month for me is the coercer. I have been flying versions of the “Standard” PVP fits for coercers for the past few months as part of my plan to solo in every combat capable ship in EVE at least once. I used a standard 400mm plate armor fit, sometimes with (now “mid-grade”) low grade slaves which really helped the viability of this brawling setup when combined with the ship's decent range and passable DPS. I also used a high DPS, small pulse laser fit which proved quite solid, scoring kills such as this dual-rep incursus, a near 2-shot on this condor, and other such kills. The high-DPS coercer does not have as much DPS as max DPS catalysts nor does the 400mm plate version have as much tank as the 400mm plate algos, but it combines those types of fittings with a generous engagement range when using scorch. I learned the value of that ranged DPS the previous month when I warped on top of a high DPS catalyst and managed to pulse the MWD outside of his blaster range—but still inside the coercer's laser range. Lasers are still quite new for me, so this fight was a learning experience.
In a quick secession of fights, this coercer, which eventually died to a random command ship, provoked a high sec group of players into throwing what looks to be their entire fleet of ships at it, to no avail, including a mackinaw, a noctis, a retriever, and a drake navy issue. I'm not at all sure what happened here, but at least they got a sort of revenge in the end when a passerby killed me.

1. Astero. 17 kills.
The Astero is one of my favorite ships. I use a fairly standard dual rep, cap boosting fit for scouting around, for semi-afk PVP activities such as waiting for explorers to wander by, as well as for exploration in 1/10 – 3/10 DED combat sites when there is little else to do. With drones on aggressive and an afterburner going, the latter is largely a semi-afk activity as well. I've also scored almost 50 solo kills in my astero—which I bought sometime in November 2013 and have yet to lose as of June, 2014. The 17 kills of May include many a hapless explorer (for the new players among them I always repay them more isk than they lost and strike up a conversation about exploration and PVP, explaining how they can avoid getting killed next time they venture into low sec. I've made a few friends this way). However, the astero is more than capable of fighting other PVP ships. This algos is one real fight this ship had during May, as I tend to be fairly risk-averse in this ship, maybe because I like it so much.

3. Stratios. 13 kills.
In May, I mostly flew a Stratios in high sec while in a +5 attribute clone, during short play sessions, as part of one of my completionist goals to visit every high sec system in game. I visit new systems and poke around a bit, doing some exploration sites in this ship, but also getting into some strange fights at times. This drake was upset I killed his mobile tractor, while this thorax—a frequent baiter of mission runners in this area of space—was no match for the pre-nerf Geckos which boosted my Stratios fit up to an insane 850 DPS. RIP pre-nerf Geckos.

4. Ishkur. 9 kills.
There's actually not much to say about the ishkur kills in this month, as I was largely testing out fits and cleaning up some mobile tractors I found.

5. Tormentor. 7 kills.
Like the coercer kills, the tormentor kills in May were part of my attempt to solo in every combat capable ship at least once, and like the coercer it is frequently underestimated (which can make getting fights a bit easier). Laser ships like the tormentor are still very new to me. I used a “standard” 400m plate fit, a dual rep fit similar to the dual rep incursus, and a small ancillary armor rep fit with a 200mm plate (again similar to a parallel incursus fit). The tormentor is a pretty tough little ship, capable of fighting above its mere T1 class due to its decent DPS at scram range and its excellent tank when either passive or active. All of my fits are afterburner fits—which opens it up to being easily kited. Flying smart can sometimes prevent this, getting lucky where you land can also help, but sooner or later if you fly afterburner fit ships you are going to die a slow, painful death to a kiting ship—such as to a condor or the new garmur.

6. Purifier. 7 kills.
Tied with the tormentor is the purifer at 7 kills. I had a blast in this ship in May, with many reminders at how viable stealth bombers can be even in low sec against the right targets. I flew the purifier around low sec mostly looking for clone soldiers while keeping an eye out for potential targets in space—an activity that pairs nicely with having two monitors and doing something besides EVE on the second. I encountered this ratting caracal as well as this harbinger navy issue while not really looking for fights, but stumbling on them anyway.

7. Moa. 5 kills.
The Moa, now one of the hottest ships in EVE, used to be ugly. I started flying it when still ugly and it quickly became one of my favorite cruisers. I use again fairly standard blaster as well as 200mm railgun LSE fits, and have an XLASB fit in the future line-up. In cruiser-class brawler versus brawler fights, it fares pretty well. However, it is quite slow and runs out of cap very quickly, which makes flying the 200mm rail fit somewhat odd—on one hand, you have good range. On the other hand, you cannot exactly kite since the MWD only lasts a minute or so.

8. Celestis. 5 kills.
I was largely trying out some bait celestis fits, simply getting a feel for its tank and DPS. This resulted in fairly odd kills like this one but nothing really special.

9. Nereus. 5 kills.
Also largely testing out some bait fits and shooting some mobile structures. Nothing really special. 

10. Executioner. 2 kills.
Finally, the poor executioner. I've tried hard to get a fit that works, that can score some—any--solo kills, but the executioner simply isn't as solo-friendly as most other frigs. Using a scram range kiting fit with an active armor tank, I scored this cormorant kill and counted it as a massive accomplishment as was the first time I've flown the executioner without just dying in a fire.

There are a few other ships I flew and scored 1 kill in, and there are many other fights I had which either resulted in 1) me exploding, or 2) no one exploding, but that's roughly how May went for me—a lot of really strange fights which occurred when I wasn't exactly looking for a fight. However, I learned a huge amount and made steady progress toward my personal goals in EVE, so I count it as a successful month.

Saturday, May 31, 2014

Why Kronos Might Be the Best Low Sec Expansion Yet

Though Kronos is the first “expansion” in the new 10-release a year cycle, and thus has some of its previous main features (e.g., industry) pushed back to Crius, I'm of the opinion that it will be the best expansion ever for the health and ecosystem of low sec. The other close contender would be Retribution, are largely because of its revamp to the crime watch system and a very little big change in the sentry/station gun mechanics (whereby they only shoot you when you engage a target on grid thus essentially removing the low sec PVP downtime from 15 minutes, to seconds).

Almost every play style in low sec is getting a much needed boost, in addition to the fact that Kronos is bringing many changes that will gameplay in general (such as graphics improvements, audio customization, and new UI improvements). Let's run through the positive changes (the patch notes can be found here):

Love for Low Sec Exploration and PVE
New Rats:
First of all, there will be new Mordus rat spawns in belts anywhere in low sec (and low sec only) which drop blueprints for the three new pirate ships. This is significant because farming clone soldier tags is currently an activity which nets less than (but close to) the average isk made running level 4 missions. The added possibility of Mordus rats means that now ratting in low sec belts is (finally) likely to be more profitable than doing level 4 missions in high sec (at least in .1 and .2 sec space where the profitable clone soldiers appear).
Second, for the first time ever, the BPC of a pirate battleship will drop in low sec, not null. This change, in and of itself, is a huge shift from the current status quo of null sec always being a notch better than low for most activities. I already cover 50-100 belts in low sec when search for clone tags in a session, and the ability to now also find Mordus rats dropping much more valuable items is a massive boost to visiting belts in low sec space.

New Exploration Sites:
In answer to my questions about the new exploration sites on the forums, CCP Reddawn said the following:

Just to get things straight:
1) The BPCs for the new pirate ships (Garmur etc) drop from Mordus rats in low security belts.

2) Contested Guristas Covert Research Facility sites will (only?) drop data that can either be sold on the market or traded at the Mordus station. But otherwise these sites drop no loot? And these sites too will spawn in low sec?

3) Once enough data has been delivered to the Mordus station, Besieged Covert Research Facility sites will start to appear anywhere in low sec and they will drop the new ship skin BPCs, "low-grade" implants, and warp speed modules?

Is all of that correct or am I missing something?

I also have a question about the "Besieged Covert Research Facility" sites. Once they have been "unlocked," are they permanently unlocked such that they spawn all over low sec from there on out? Or is it more of a system where 1 is unlocked as a spawn for every X amount of data delivered to Mordus
?

CCP Reddawn:
“1) Yes that's right.
2) Yes these Contested sites only drop the data you need to unlock the Besieged sites and they will be present in low sec.
3) Yes. The Besieged sites will be over all of low sec and drop what's mentioned in the dev blog.
In regards to your question, they will be permanently unlocked in one big batch.”
Later, he noted that the Contested sites will be in both low and high sec. Once Besieged sites are unlocked, that means a permanent new type of site in (only) low sec (appearing as an anomaly, not signature). They drop the (new) “low-grade” pirate implants, awesome as hell ship skins, and the new warp speed modules. They can also be done solo, or so testing on Sisi has confirmed, but will take some pretty well fit ships (unless someone figures out how to farm them in stealth bombers, which hopefully won't happen).

Also, don't forget about the removal of lootspew! I might actually do relic/data sites again as a result (the lower isk rate is not an issue—my hand not hurt after clicking for cans is the issue).

I don't think low sec has ever received this much legitimately new (as opposed to re-done) PVE content in a single expansion, at least since I've been playing. Of course, the PVE content will matter for people who explore and rat in low sec. It will draw in more players, which the PVPers always love. However, the low sec traders will also see added business. It is a win-win for everyone, particularly because all of this content is spread over the entirely of low sec.

Massive Improvements to Low Sec Transportation and Logistics
More wormhole connections:
When I lived in low sec as an explorer, I used the rare low->high or the rare low->low(boarding high) wormholes for virtually all of my travel to high sec. Low->low wormholes will now be more common. This helps logistics to and from high sec for players living in deep low, since sometimes other low-sec systems will have a much easier passage to high sec. Furthermore, there will be more low->null wormholes, which opens up the possibility of more spelunking into null, either to explore or to PVP.

Improved Blockade Runners
The main improvement here is the cargohold increase. The nerf to Jump Freighters hurts low sec corps a bit, but the buff to blockade runners is a massive boost for the solo player or very small groups in low sec. This is a rare expansion where solo logistics is actually getting quite a buff, while group logistics is getting a bit harder—part of which us solo folk at least appreciate. DST might also be worth using, but I'm not convinced yet.

New Ores and the Prospect Mining Frigate
Even though low sec industry isn't getting a buff until Crius, mining will be more profitable in low with the added ore spawns, and the Prospect makes it far safer. Serious miners won't be affected much, but a decent group of players—for some reason—likes to venture into low (and null) in mining ships, and at least CCP is giving them a way to do so a bit more safely.

Faction War Tweaks
It is hard to tell how much of an impact the small FW plex changes will actually have, but FW farmers will likely have a harder time farming in ships fit solely with warp core stabs. The changes don't make much sense to me—the real problem with farmers is there warp core stabs, not cloaks—and it also removes the ability to kill farmers using cloaked 2 or 3x scram ships. The changes also push more PVE into FW, which is not a step in the right direction. However, at least CCP is trying to change the farming-meta in ways that will ideally benefit PVPers in FW.

New PVP Toys
Of course, the new PVP ships and the rebalanced pirate ships are largely great changes for low sec PVPers. New modules like the medium micro jump drive for battlecruisers are a bit odd and do not at all seem like they will help battlecruiser PVP, but they add at least a slightly new dimension.

Low Sec Improvements for New Players
Lastly, it is becoming easier to be a new player living in low sec and doing activities like exploration. Some of the reasons were already mentioned: mining is safer with the Prospect, the Mordus rats in belts will have the potential to be killed by a newbie in a cruiser/battlecruiser or maybe even a stealth bomber, and logistics is getting a lot easier. However, the drone changes are actually a huge boost to the viability to new explorers. Why? Well, T1 drones, partly with the revamp to the drone interfacing skill, are going to be doing more base damage. This means a new player in, say, a Tristan or an Algos or a Vexor using T1 drones will be able to much more effectively do 1/10 – 4/10 combat sites which are everywhere in low sec. Furthermore, the MWD speeds of heavy and medium drones are going up substantially, meaning that using them in PVE is more viable. This is a small but significant boost for new players.

Less Stealth Bombers?
Finally, here's a change in the patch notes that no one is talking about so far as I've read:
The Clone Soldier Trainer, Recruiter, Transporter and Negotiator NPCs found in low security asteroid belts have received significant upgrades to their engagement range.”
This seems to suggest that stealth bombers will be less effective against clone soldiers. I haven't been on the test server to test it yet though Currently, you would be crazy to farm clone soldiers in anything besides a stealth bomber: uncloak at 20k or further, fire about 10 rounds of torps, loot, cloak, repeat. It is an incredibly safe activity and unfortunately adds virtually nothing to the low sec ecosystem. I really hope this change—and the abilities of the Mordus rats—makes farming clone soldiers in bombers less viable. Fingers crossed.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

An Applied Introduction to Regional Trading: Part II - Items to Sell


Way back when, I started an introduction to regional trading, one that gave specifics on what and where to sell. Here, finally, I talk about what to sell—with specific examples, but also a focus on how to find a market niche.
In part I we introduced the basic ingredients of setting up a regional/inter-regional trade market, and picked a suitable location. Here's what we have at this point:


Sell Location: Simela, Genesis
Buy Location: Usually Jita, but Dodixie is an option as well (we might also buy up orders in systems nearby Simela and pool them into the market there).
Profit Goal: Make a stable 1b a month with infrequent order updating.
Investment Goal: 10b, on the modest assumption we will make 10% of that a month.
Product Goal: Find at least 10b in suitable items to sell.



What to Sell?


Let's start by making a list—a big one. Were going to list, first, the main activities players engage in in Simela and surrounding areas. Then, starting with the most popular activities (so far as we can tell) we are going to list all the main items people use in those activities and, more importantly, all the items people lose in those activities. At that point, we will look at the actual market details in Simela and see which items make for potential trade opportunities.

We already know what the most common activity is in Simela: missions. Level 3 missions are available for the SOE faction, but there are also level 4 agents available in system as well. Hang around the stations for a while in Simela, or the gate leaving system, and you will notice few use the two non-SOE stations. You will also notice that the majority of ships leaving the SOE station are level 3 mission ships—battlecruisers, primarily. However, try hanging around Bherdaspot at the Simela gate or at the sun using dscan for a while, and you will notice a decent amount of level 2 mission ships out (like cruisers), as well as level 4 mission ships like battleships.

We are going to start our market, then, by building around the mission runner population. But what else do players do in this area? PVP probably comes in second. If you spend some time looking at the killboards for systems around Simela-Gonditsa, you will notice that very few loses are from PVPers fighting PVPers. Search through the kills in Gonditsa on any given day and you will find only a few PVP ships dying for every few dozen non-PVP ships. This tells us that PVP-specific goods might not be the best market in this area, but is perhaps still worth stocking later on.

Mining is also a common activity no matter where you go in high sec, but scanning the belts around Simela every so often suggests the miner population is relatively low. Exploration is also quite common, particularly leading into the low sec area. While it might not seem like it, Simela is also next to a travel route. The pipe from Gonditsa leads into Van (Aridia) which leads to Solitude, so it is likely that some players as far away as Solitude use Simela as a nearby hub for buying and selling.

So, first we focus on items relevant to missions. Then we move to PVP-specific items, then mining and then exploration items.

Where I usually start when brainstorming what items to sell is by thinking about what people lose. If they lose it, they will likely seek to replace it. The starting place is probably obvious: Ammo and drones. Ammo gets used up, drones get destroyed or left behind. However, I've tried trading in ammo and drones elsewhere, and the competition in intense. But something strange happens when we look up common types of ammo on the Simela market. There is not much competition, even in the most frequently used ammo types. As a general rule, it isn't usually worth trading in T1 ammo and drones given the massive amount that needs to sell in order to make a profit. That leaves us with T2 ammo and faction ammo.

Take missiles as a test case. Experimenting selling all these kinds, as one might expect, heavy missiles are the fastest movers while rockets and light missiles are the slowest, with the rest in between. Scourge missiles of all types tend to move more quickly than those of other types, and javelin/precision variants are the slower of the T2 types. There are trade offs at every point, however. T2 and faction light missiles have almost no presence on the market. They won't move fast, but 1) the orders will rarely require updating in 0.1 bid wars, and 2) the profit margins will be determined largely by you. As market order slots becomes an issue—we have around 300 total on a character fully skilled—these two features might be less attractive, but market order capacity ceases to be an issue when you use more than one character for trading. So, I experimented in the following items:

Heavy Missiles
Caldari Navy Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Precision Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Fury Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge

Heavy Assault Missiles
Caldari Navy Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Javelin Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Rage Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge

Cruise Missiles
Caldari Navy Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Javelin Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Rage Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge

Torpedoes
Caldari Navy Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Precision Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Fury Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge

Light Missiles
Caldari Navy Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Precision Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Fury Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge

Rockets
Caldari Navy Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Javelin Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge
Rage Nova / Inferno / Mjolnir / Scourge

12 in each category, 6 categories—if we traded in all missiles, we'd already be up to 72 orders, with sell orders totaling around 1 billion isk depending on how many of each ammo type you stock. As an example of the sorts of profits I made in my first month trading, with no more than one update / restock per week and from buying directly off sell order in Jita:
Mjolnir Fury Heavy Missiles were at the high end, netting me 47m in profit from a sale of 111k. Caldari Navy Heavy Missiles tended to require more babysitting to keep my orders the lowest, so I made less than other areas where less competition was found. 
Light missiles--on the low end of profits--still generated around 30m profit from all the orders and I only needed to update the scourge missile orders a few times. 
HAMs made a similar amount as a whole, with a comparable lack of competition. 
In total, I made around 200m in missiles in the span of a month (a statistic somewhat complicated by the fact that I did not get many of the orders up until part of the way through the month). Not bad at all for what was largely passive--a few updates and a few trips to restock in sum.

I've since pulled out of some of those markets--they were done largely as a test, as I've never traded in ammo before. But they sum up a general lesson: profit can come even in areas of a market that look empty, with no past history.

For this reason, I would seriously caution relying on the market table/graphic pages for planning trades. Why? Because it is limiting and misleading in a lot of ways. The main is this: the market history does not tell you the key trading counterfactual conditional: IF I sold item X at this station for X isk, how often would it have sold? Many of the items I traded simply had no presence on the nearby market until I listed them, so their trade history gave me almost zero relevant information. Finding good trades, in other words, is less about looking at the market's past history of trades, and more about accurately predicting its future trades. Many of my favorite items to trade are those that are not usually listed in regional markets, and I would have never learned to trade them without simply experimenting with assortments of items based on my best guess about what activities people do and what they buy and lose in the system.

Next we move to other ammo types. Hybrid charges—large, medium, and small—of all the above types (faction, T2 such as void and null), then projectile charges, then laser crystals. Browse the market in Simela and you will find that many ammo types are not on the market, and many more are not in Simela in particular. There is easily a few hundred good items to sell just in terms of ammo alone!

Besides ammo, there are a few other types of items commonly used by mission runners which are lost or depleted. These items include T2/faction drones, navy cap charges, and mobile structures--particularly mobile tractors. Unfortunately, I've not have much success in any of these markets, as even in Simela they are highly saturated. I have a suspicion that someone manufactures T2 drones and sends them to Simela, in fact, because the margins are very frequently at or near major hub prices.

Mistakes Will Be Made

A final point is worth making. Mistakes will be made. Sell orders will be put in at 1 billion isk rather than 100 million. I lost around 250 million isk in brokers fees at a single time. Digits will also be dropped, rather than added, causing you to sell items to a buy order for tens of millions rather than list the items for hundreds. Mistakes like this happen and should simply be calculated into the costs of running a market. Here's is a personal habitual example:


I seem to screw up orders on mobile tractors once a month in Simela--no idea why. This is simply a feature of not being a bot, I suppose.
In the next post in this series, I will detail more potential trade opportunities. Instead of disposable items, we will look at T2 modules.





Monday, May 26, 2014

Career Agents for PVP - A step-by-step guide

The tl;dr is
-There should be a career agent for PVP which walks players though building a simple pvp frigate (like a brawling frig) similar to the current military agent but...
-It should involve real pvp experience via the duel system
-New players should be directed in the career agents--somehow--to the eve recruitment page and the community spotlight organizations where they might find, e.g., pvp corps who help newbies.
-They should also be notified about faction warfare, and FW should potentially be opened to players and perhaps should involve boosted insurance payments for ships lost (so as to reward PVP but not exclusively winning at PVP in FW)


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One thing I have learned from recent reports about new players entering EVE—such as the new player experience presentation at fanfest—is that, statistically, the vast majority of new players enter EVE 1) after hearing about some highly publicized PVP event, such as a major fight in null, and 2) join EVE hoping to at least see about taking part in similar content.

Some of my current friends in EVE joined right after B-R, and that was explicitly why the gave EVE a try. Their goals were framed around taking part in such content. Few of those new players I met (who've also stayed with EVE) still have "be in major null sec fights" as their goal (though some of them do—e.g., one just joined one of the major null sec blocs after beginning training in their fleet doctrines starting as early in his first month of playing), but it is clear that taking part in PVP is a primary reason for trying out EVE.

Here's another example. Today, the new player systems were unusually populated. This likely has to do with the combination of it being a holiday for some players, the end of school for others, and from EVE being featured on the humble bundle right before. I was restocking items I sell in some new player stations and found a group of new players dueling and chatting about it in local. Other new players in system got interested, and a conversation ensued about fittings, tactics, and how to go about dueling, etc. One day old player had built his Atron largely out of parts he acquired from the players he destroyed, which was cute. Sadly he lost the ship eventually, but seemed to have a fun time doing so. This was pretty encouraging to see, and I wished at the time that this experience they were having could be more than a mere accident.

As the statistics of new player paths in EVE presented at fanfest suggest, these anecdotes about new player goals are the norm, and the people who enter EVE for the “PVE” are few and far between. After all, monumental “PVE” accomplishments of EVE have never been featured in main stream media, and I doubt anyone has ever started EVE by saying either that they heard it has a great mining system or that they are enticed by the possibility of running the same handful of PVE missions for the next few years and learning how to do so afk while playing DOTA. (I happen to think the PVE in EVE is far better, for some player types, than its terrible reputation deserves, but that's another topic.)

As is also pretty well recognized though, new players do not have great systems in place for even starting the path to making those goals a reality. The players who stumble on the duel system—and without getting baited by an older player—are few and far between, as are those who manage to piece together tactics for successful PVP. In the first days of playing, they are presented with a set of career agents which suggest that 1) their goals will be provided for them by NPCs—that EVE is not as much of a sandbox as they may have heard, and 2) that the available “career” paths in EVE actually involving fighting NPCs in highly structured, scripted environments, much like every other MMO on the market.

These career agents—even the “combat” ones—do not necessarily teach skills relevant for PVP, nor do they even usually teach skills necessary for PVE in EVE. Something needs to be added in the new player system to better help this vast majority of new players both learn the basics of PVP and learn how to get involved in PVP after the tutorials.

Of course, we can day dream and imagine some pretty amazing ways of having a new player PVP tutorial, but they would very likely take up a massive amount of developer time if seriously implemented. And, as a result, they probably won't be implemented.

So our goals are to come up with a new player PVP tutorial which fits into the current career agent system, consisting of a set of training missions which both teach the player the basic elements of PVP and rewards them with the basic ships, skill books, and modules needed for PVP. The tutorial should:

  1. Teach the basic elements of fitting a ship (most likely, a frigate) for PVP.
  2. Teach the basic methods of PVPing in such ships.
  3. Actually involve some type of PVP, so not just involve fighting rats.
  4. Direct the new player, upon completion, to different PVP organizations and systems within EVE.
  5. And finally, the tutorial should take up as little dev time to create as possible. So nothing fancy, and ideally nothing that would require the programming of an entirely new system in the game.

The importance of goal 5 should not be underestimated and it structures every one of my suggestions to follow.

Teaching Skills

We can model much of the PVP tutorial on the existing career agent tutorials (particularly the military career agent) which are not ideal but they'll have to do unless massive dev time is going to be spent. The majority of the missions will be straight forward, step by step instructions on how to fit a ship for PVP. To keep it simple, the tutorial should focus on brawling (kiting is probably a harder skill to teach a new player still getting used to the game's controls and environment). That includes 1) orbiting within the optimal range of the relevant type of guns/missiles and using an afterburner, 2) the importance of using a scram and/or web to pin the target, and 3) tanking a ship to its strength, rather fitting a random assortment of tanking modules. It can build on the foundation already present in the military career agent missions, perhaps with more explicit recommendations for using those skills in PVP rather than in PVE.

Real Experience

The key to this tutorial, though, is that it has to involve some type of PVP where these skills would actually be used. So, I suggest that toward the end of the tutorial, once the player has a sufficiently built PVP ship provided by the tutorial (e.g., an atron with blasters and ammo, afterburner, scram, web, and at least a damage control), the mission instruct the player to take this ship and request a duel from another player and attempt to destroy their ship upon acceptance. In the process, it can explain the difference between types of flags—e.g., the light blue flag indicating a limited engagement with another player where both can freely attack—and it can explain the use of the safety settings.

The player should be warned that if they choose to accept this mission and request to duel another player, they risk losing their ship if the other player wins, but they also face the possibility of 1) destroying the other player's ship and 2) getting to freely loot that player's cargo which happens to drop when they explode. Perhaps the players could also be instructed about the ability to look at the other player's biography and see their character's age, and then be given a recommendation to request to duel newer players like themselves.

The tutorial would be complete when the other player accepts the duel—so win or lose (or run away or dock) the player would get at least a potential experience in PVP. I also suggest that the tutorial give as part of its reward the same ship and all its fittings previously given, so that if a player loses the ship in the process of dueling they have a full replacement ready.

Some players and developers might be worried about new players requesting a duel from older players who will gladly destroy them—perhaps older players waiting for just such an opportunity. I find this a strangely paternalistic attitude in a game which is marketed in the mainstream press as one of the few games ever made where you can destroy (or have destroyed) anything you or anyone else flies. There are rules in place prohibiting players who want to grief new players in starting systems, for one, and these should continue to be enforced, obviously. However, given the fact that so many players start EVE on the basis of hearing about its PVP and wanting to experience something like that, one might—rightly, I think—begin to think that the new player system as it currently exists is a deliberate attempt to direct players into anything butPVP experiences with other players. Not a word of “PVP” is so much as mentioned in the new player experience, so it is no wonder so many go on to mission and mine and leave. Where, indeed, would they even find PVP if they wanted to? Where, furthermore, would they find rewarding PVP? 

Where to Find Rewarding PVP

That leaves one final requirement of the PVP career agent: it needs to direct them to player organizations and game systems which can teach the new player how to PVP. Here, my recommendations are blatantly clear:

There is a long-running debate about how CCP can direct new players to good organizations without “favoring” some organizations or putting themselves at risk should some continue to exploit players.
There is now a concrete solution to this problem: the community spotlight series. In doing a community spotlight, CCP has given public recognition for certain organizations—Brave newbies, RVB, and recently the smaller open university of celestial hardship, for instance—and rightly so, yet they give recognition and important information without explicitly saying new players should join these groups. Thus, the PVP career agent tutorial should direct the player to the series and indicate that many new player organizations are featured there. That gives CCP the ability to externally modify the list and add or remove organizations as needed.

Second, the new player tutorial should direct players, with a link, to the EVE forum recruitment page as a place to find current organizations involved in PVP who recruit new players.

The tutorial agent should then also direct new players to faction warfare. If you think about what it takes for a new player to engage in PVP in EVE, many of them are virtually unavailable due to the existing game systems. Should a new player go to low sec and PVP, they will either only fight much better pirates they can freely engage, or they will lose security status fighting non-pirates. Eventually, the latter bars them from high sec, where they are used to living and making isk. What's worse, almost every PVP system in EVE (open to new players) involves losing isk rather than making it—besides faction warfare.

So, I suggest that new players be directed to faction warfare in the tutorial and be encouraged to find FW corps to join on the forums. This raises a complicated issue. If players on the trial were directed to FW, they would either have to be told that, unfortunately, they could not do it on a trail, or the ban on new players doing FW in a trial would have to be removed. I am not exactly sure what justifies the ban on trials entering FW any longer. It is becoming harder to farm plexes in Kronos. Sure, it would exclude the new player from half of empire space, but they informed about this and consent to entering (and can leave at any time). There's a worry that existing players would repeatedly create trial accounts to farm FW for isk for their main account, but 1) there is still an inability to run a trial account and a regular account at the same time, and 2) there is already a general ban on players exploiting the trial system with possible bans if found, so I don't see this problem as a justification for removing a potentially worthwhile and relatively safe source of game play from new players.

Finally, I think FW should have an automatic type of insurance, where losing a ship to another player ship in FW gives you an automatic “FW insurance” refund for a decent portion (obviously no more than 100%) of the cost of the hull. This would be like an NPC version of a Ship Replacement Program that so many large corps run, and would reward PVP without exclusively rewarding winning as it currently the case.

What's clear, even if my suggestions are not ideal (they probably aren't), is that the current new player system in EVE does not cater to the real reason why many players enter EVE, and it is likely that any changes, even if not ideal, would be for the better.